NHL Projections

5 games. Team goals are the sum of every projected skater on that team, so they exclude empty-net and shootout scoring and will read low against real finals. The gap between the two numbers carries more signal than either one alone. Tap a game for the matchup detail.

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Mon Sep 28

NYR

2.70

BOS

2.88

5.58

BOS

0.17

NYR

Proj G	2.70
Proj SOG	25.1
Proj A	5.09
Proj BLK	13.2
Proj PIM	6.7
Opp CA/60	59.8
Opp HDCA/60	12.50
Opp SV%	0.907
Shot adj	1.05
Goalie adj	0.96
Opp goalie	Jeremy Swayman
Top projected
Adam Fox LD/PP1	0.98 P · 1.9 SOG
Mika Zibanejad LF/PP1	0.91 P · 2.6 SOG
Pavel Dorofeyev LF/PP1	0.81 P · 2.9 SOG
J T Miller LF/PP1	0.71 P · 2.1 SOG
Alexis Lafreniere LF/PP1	0.65 P · 2.3 SOG
Sean Durzi LD/PP2	0.51 P · 1.6 SOG

BOS

Proj G	2.88
Proj SOG	24.9
Proj A	5.99
Proj BLK	11.1
Proj PIM	10.3
Opp CA/60	57.3
Opp HDCA/60	10.20
Opp SV%	0.911
Shot adj	1.01
Goalie adj	0.97
Opp goalie	Igor Shesterkin
Top projected
David Pastrnak LF/PP1	1.21 P · 3.3 SOG
Charlie Mcavoy LD/PP1	0.84 P · 1.7 SOG
Morgan Geekie LF/PP1	0.78 P · 2.3 SOG
Pavel Zacha LF/PP1	0.70 P · 1.5 SOG
James Hagens LF/PP2	0.68 P · 1.1 SOG
Elias Lindholm LF/PP1	0.63 P · 1.7 SOG

Mon Sep 28

FLA

2.74

CAR

3.17

5.90

CAR

0.43

FLA

Proj G	2.74
Proj SOG	20.9
Proj A	5.05
Proj BLK	8.9
Proj PIM	10.2
Opp CA/60	46.7
Opp HDCA/60	10.86
Opp SV%	0.894
Shot adj	0.82
Goalie adj	0.99
Opp goalie	Brandon Bussi
Top projected
Matthew Tkachuk LF/PP1	0.93 P · 2.3 SOG
Brady Tkachuk LF/PP1	0.91 P · 2.6 SOG
Sam Reinhart LF/PP1	0.79 P · 1.7 SOG
Brad Marchand LF/PP2	0.67 P · 1.5 SOG
Sam Bennett LF/PP2	0.65 P · 1.8 SOG
Carter Verhaeghe LF/PP2	0.63 P · 1.7 SOG

CAR

Proj G	3.17
Proj SOG	26.8
Proj A	4.76
Proj BLK	9.0
Proj PIM	6.8
Opp CA/60	54.2
Opp HDCA/60	11.64
Opp SV%	0.877
Shot adj	0.95
Goalie adj	1.05
Opp goalie	Sergei Bobrovsky
Top projected
Sebastian Aho LF/PP1	0.88 P · 2.4 SOG
Andrei Svechnikov LF/PP1	0.87 P · 2.6 SOG
Shayne Gostisbehere LD/PP1	0.86 P · 2.0 SOG
Nikolaj Ehlers LF/PP1	0.74 P · 2.1 SOG
Taylor Hall LF/PP2	0.58 P · 1.6 SOG
Jackson Blake LF/PP2	0.58 P · 1.9 SOG

Mon Sep 28

VAN

2.22

EDM

3.55

5.77

EDM

1.34

VAN

Proj G	2.22
Proj SOG	20.1
Proj A	3.22
Proj BLK	8.2
Proj PIM	4.9
Opp CA/60	55.6
Opp HDCA/60	11.06
Opp SV%	0.899
Shot adj	0.98
Goalie adj	1.00
Opp goalie	Connor Ingram
Top projected
Elias Pettersson LF/PP1	0.65 P · 1.6 SOG
Jake Debrusk LF/PP1	0.62 P · 2.4 SOG
Marco Rossi LF/PP1	0.60 P · 1.0 SOG
Brock Boeser LF/PP1	0.58 P · 2.0 SOG
Filip Hronek LD/PP2	0.49 P · 1.4 SOG
Linus Karlsson LF/PP2	0.44 P · 1.5 SOG

EDM

Proj G	3.55
Proj SOG	29.6
Proj A	5.35
Proj BLK	12.3
Proj PIM	6.8
Opp CA/60	60.2
Opp HDCA/60	13.09
Opp SV%	0.875
Shot adj	1.06
Goalie adj	1.02
Opp goalie	Kevin Lankinen
Top projected
Connor Mcdavid LF/PP1	1.59 P · 4.2 SOG
Leon Draisaitl LF/PP1	1.51 P · 3.4 SOG
Zach Hyman LF/PP1	0.83 P · 3.2 SOG
Ryan Nugent Hopkins LF/PP1	0.81 P · 1.9 SOG
Vasily Podkolzin LF/PP2	0.49 P · 1.9 SOG
Mattias Ekholm LD/PP2	0.49 P · 1.6 SOG

Mon Sep 28

MTL

3.17

TOR

2.95

6.12

MTL

0.23

MTL

Proj G	3.17
Proj SOG	28.1
Proj A	6.17
Proj BLK	17.0
Proj PIM	9.2
Opp CA/60	63.7
Opp HDCA/60	12.30
Opp SV%	0.898
Shot adj	1.12
Goalie adj	0.97
Opp goalie	Joseph Woll
Top projected
Nick Suzuki LF/PP1	1.19 P · 2.3 SOG
Cole Caufield LF/PP1	1.10 P · 3.6 SOG
Juraj Slafkovsky LF/PP1	0.91 P · 2.4 SOG
Lane Hutson LD/PP1	0.89 P · 1.4 SOG
Ivan Demidov LF/PP1	0.70 P · 1.5 SOG
Noah Dobson LD/PP2	0.54 P · 2.1 SOG

TOR

Proj G	2.95
Proj SOG	26.3
Proj A	4.72
Proj BLK	12.3
Proj PIM	7.9
Opp CA/60	57.8
Opp HDCA/60	12.21
Opp SV%	0.901
Shot adj	1.02
Goalie adj	0.99
Opp goalie	Jakub Dobes
Top projected
William Nylander LF/PP1	1.04 P · 2.3 SOG
Auston Matthews LF/PP1	0.83 P · 3.9 SOG
Darren Raddysh LD/PP1	0.83 P · 2.5 SOG
John Tavares LF/PP1	0.78 P · 2.4 SOG
Matthew Knies LF/PP1	0.75 P · 1.9 SOG
Jack Roslovic LF/PP2	0.49 P · 2.1 SOG

Mon Sep 28

CHI

2.66

VGK

3.00

5.66

VGK

0.34

CHI

Proj G	2.66
Proj SOG	22.9
Proj A	4.32
Proj BLK	10.8
Proj PIM	7.0
Opp CA/60	53.0
Opp HDCA/60	9.51
Opp SV%	0.893
Shot adj	0.93
Goalie adj	1.02
Opp goalie	Akira Schmid
Top projected
Patrick Kane LF/PP1	0.82 P · 2.5 SOG
Anton Frondell LF/PP1	0.80 P · 2.8 SOG
Tyler Bertuzzi LF/PP1	0.78 P · 2.1 SOG
Frank Nazar LF/PP2	0.57 P · 1.8 SOG
Bowen Byram LD/PP2	0.48 P · 1.1 SOG
Artyom Levshunov LD/PP1	0.42 P · 1.0 SOG

VGK

Proj G	3.00
Proj SOG	31.9
Proj A	6.00
Proj BLK	14.9
Proj PIM	7.1
Opp CA/60	59.8
Opp HDCA/60	13.66
Opp SV%	0.902
Shot adj	1.05
Goalie adj	0.95
Opp goalie	Spencer Knight
Top projected
Jack Eichel LF/PP1	1.15 P · 3.7 SOG
Mark Stone LF/PP1	1.06 P · 2.4 SOG
Mitch Marner LF/PP1	0.96 P · 2.3 SOG
Ivan Barbashev LF/PP2	0.78 P · 1.9 SOG
Tomas Hertl LF/PP1	0.63 P · 2.6 SOG
Shea Theodore LD/PP1	0.51 P · 1.9 SOG

Mon Sep 28Igor Shesterkin

NYR2.7

BOS2.9

BOS by 0.17total 5.58

NYR

Proj G	2.70
Proj SOG	25.1
Proj A	5.09
Proj BLK	13.2
Proj PIM	6.7
Opp CA/60	59.8
Opp HDCA/60	12.50
Opp SV%	0.907
Shot adj	1.05
Goalie adj	0.96
Opp goalie	Jeremy Swayman
Top projected
Adam Fox LD/PP1	0.98 P · 1.9 SOG
Mika Zibanejad LF/PP1	0.91 P · 2.6 SOG
Pavel Dorofeyev LF/PP1	0.81 P · 2.9 SOG
J T Miller LF/PP1	0.71 P · 2.1 SOG
Alexis Lafreniere LF/PP1	0.65 P · 2.3 SOG
Sean Durzi LD/PP2	0.51 P · 1.6 SOG

BOS

Proj G	2.88
Proj SOG	24.9
Proj A	5.99
Proj BLK	11.1
Proj PIM	10.3
Opp CA/60	57.3
Opp HDCA/60	10.20
Opp SV%	0.911
Shot adj	1.01
Goalie adj	0.97
Opp goalie	Igor Shesterkin
Top projected
David Pastrnak LF/PP1	1.21 P · 3.3 SOG
Charlie Mcavoy LD/PP1	0.84 P · 1.7 SOG
Morgan Geekie LF/PP1	0.78 P · 2.3 SOG
Pavel Zacha LF/PP1	0.70 P · 1.5 SOG
James Hagens LF/PP2	0.68 P · 1.1 SOG
Elias Lindholm LF/PP1	0.63 P · 1.7 SOG

Mon Sep 28Sergei Bobrovsky

FLA2.7

CAR3.2

CAR by 0.43total 5.90

FLA

Proj G	2.74
Proj SOG	20.9
Proj A	5.05
Proj BLK	8.9
Proj PIM	10.2
Opp CA/60	46.7
Opp HDCA/60	10.86
Opp SV%	0.894
Shot adj	0.82
Goalie adj	0.99
Opp goalie	Brandon Bussi
Top projected
Matthew Tkachuk LF/PP1	0.93 P · 2.3 SOG
Brady Tkachuk LF/PP1	0.91 P · 2.6 SOG
Sam Reinhart LF/PP1	0.79 P · 1.7 SOG
Brad Marchand LF/PP2	0.67 P · 1.5 SOG
Sam Bennett LF/PP2	0.65 P · 1.8 SOG
Carter Verhaeghe LF/PP2	0.63 P · 1.7 SOG

CAR

Proj G	3.17
Proj SOG	26.8
Proj A	4.76
Proj BLK	9.0
Proj PIM	6.8
Opp CA/60	54.2
Opp HDCA/60	11.64
Opp SV%	0.877
Shot adj	0.95
Goalie adj	1.05
Opp goalie	Sergei Bobrovsky
Top projected
Sebastian Aho LF/PP1	0.88 P · 2.4 SOG
Andrei Svechnikov LF/PP1	0.87 P · 2.6 SOG
Shayne Gostisbehere LD/PP1	0.86 P · 2.0 SOG
Nikolaj Ehlers LF/PP1	0.74 P · 2.1 SOG
Taylor Hall LF/PP2	0.58 P · 1.6 SOG
Jackson Blake LF/PP2	0.58 P · 1.9 SOG

Mon Sep 28Kevin Lankinen

VAN2.2

EDM3.6

EDM by 1.34total 5.77

VAN

Proj G	2.22
Proj SOG	20.1
Proj A	3.22
Proj BLK	8.2
Proj PIM	4.9
Opp CA/60	55.6
Opp HDCA/60	11.06
Opp SV%	0.899
Shot adj	0.98
Goalie adj	1.00
Opp goalie	Connor Ingram
Top projected
Elias Pettersson LF/PP1	0.65 P · 1.6 SOG
Jake Debrusk LF/PP1	0.62 P · 2.4 SOG
Marco Rossi LF/PP1	0.60 P · 1.0 SOG
Brock Boeser LF/PP1	0.58 P · 2.0 SOG
Filip Hronek LD/PP2	0.49 P · 1.4 SOG
Linus Karlsson LF/PP2	0.44 P · 1.5 SOG

EDM

Proj G	3.55
Proj SOG	29.6
Proj A	5.35
Proj BLK	12.3
Proj PIM	6.8
Opp CA/60	60.2
Opp HDCA/60	13.09
Opp SV%	0.875
Shot adj	1.06
Goalie adj	1.02
Opp goalie	Kevin Lankinen
Top projected
Connor Mcdavid LF/PP1	1.59 P · 4.2 SOG
Leon Draisaitl LF/PP1	1.51 P · 3.4 SOG
Zach Hyman LF/PP1	0.83 P · 3.2 SOG
Ryan Nugent Hopkins LF/PP1	0.81 P · 1.9 SOG
Vasily Podkolzin LF/PP2	0.49 P · 1.9 SOG
Mattias Ekholm LD/PP2	0.49 P · 1.6 SOG

Mon Sep 28Jakub Dobes

MTL3.2

TOR2.9

MTL by 0.23total 6.12

MTL

Proj G	3.17
Proj SOG	28.1
Proj A	6.17
Proj BLK	17.0
Proj PIM	9.2
Opp CA/60	63.7
Opp HDCA/60	12.30
Opp SV%	0.898
Shot adj	1.12
Goalie adj	0.97
Opp goalie	Joseph Woll
Top projected
Nick Suzuki LF/PP1	1.19 P · 2.3 SOG
Cole Caufield LF/PP1	1.10 P · 3.6 SOG
Juraj Slafkovsky LF/PP1	0.91 P · 2.4 SOG
Lane Hutson LD/PP1	0.89 P · 1.4 SOG
Ivan Demidov LF/PP1	0.70 P · 1.5 SOG
Noah Dobson LD/PP2	0.54 P · 2.1 SOG

TOR

Proj G	2.95
Proj SOG	26.3
Proj A	4.72
Proj BLK	12.3
Proj PIM	7.9
Opp CA/60	57.8
Opp HDCA/60	12.21
Opp SV%	0.901
Shot adj	1.02
Goalie adj	0.99
Opp goalie	Jakub Dobes
Top projected
William Nylander LF/PP1	1.04 P · 2.3 SOG
Auston Matthews LF/PP1	0.83 P · 3.9 SOG
Darren Raddysh LD/PP1	0.83 P · 2.5 SOG
John Tavares LF/PP1	0.78 P · 2.4 SOG
Matthew Knies LF/PP1	0.75 P · 1.9 SOG
Jack Roslovic LF/PP2	0.49 P · 2.1 SOG

Mon Sep 28Spencer Knight

CHI2.7

VGK3.0

VGK by 0.34total 5.66

CHI

Proj G	2.66
Proj SOG	22.9
Proj A	4.32
Proj BLK	10.8
Proj PIM	7.0
Opp CA/60	53.0
Opp HDCA/60	9.51
Opp SV%	0.893
Shot adj	0.93
Goalie adj	1.02
Opp goalie	Akira Schmid
Top projected
Patrick Kane LF/PP1	0.82 P · 2.5 SOG
Anton Frondell LF/PP1	0.80 P · 2.8 SOG
Tyler Bertuzzi LF/PP1	0.78 P · 2.1 SOG
Frank Nazar LF/PP2	0.57 P · 1.8 SOG
Bowen Byram LD/PP2	0.48 P · 1.1 SOG
Artyom Levshunov LD/PP1	0.42 P · 1.0 SOG

VGK

Proj G	3.00
Proj SOG	31.9
Proj A	6.00
Proj BLK	14.9
Proj PIM	7.1
Opp CA/60	59.8
Opp HDCA/60	13.66
Opp SV%	0.902
Shot adj	1.05
Goalie adj	0.95
Opp goalie	Spencer Knight
Top projected
Jack Eichel LF/PP1	1.15 P · 3.7 SOG
Mark Stone LF/PP1	1.06 P · 2.4 SOG
Mitch Marner LF/PP1	0.96 P · 2.3 SOG
Ivan Barbashev LF/PP2	0.78 P · 1.9 SOG
Tomas Hertl LF/PP1	0.63 P · 2.6 SOG
Shea Theodore LD/PP1	0.51 P · 1.9 SOG