8
games
88%
winner correct
12.8
margin MAE
12.1
total MAE
+0.7
margin bias
Margin is home minus away. Error is projected minus actual, so positive means the model favoured the home team too much. A bias far from zero means the model is systematically off, not just noisy.
| Date | Game | Proj | Final | Proj mgn | Act mgn | Err | Proj tot | Act tot | Err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Aug 30 | Memphis @ UNLV | 29-28 | 27-21 | -0.4 | -6 | +5.6 | 57.1 | 48 | +9.1 |
| Sat Aug 29 | New Mexico State @ Florida State | 12-41 | 17-34 | +28.5 | +17 | +11.5 | 52.8 | 51 | +1.8 |
| Sat Aug 29 | Hawai'i @ Stanford | 25-28 | 27-37 | +2.9 | +10 | -7.1 | 52.3 | 64 | -11.7 |
| Sat Aug 29 | Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan | 28-30 | 17-28 | +1.3 | +11 | -9.7 | 57.6 | 45 | +12.6 |
| Sat Aug 29 | Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State | 18-34 | 7-33 | +16.3 | +26 | -9.7 | 52.3 | 40 | +12.3 |
| Sat Aug 29 | NC State @ Virginia | 25-29 | 8-34 | +4.2 | +26 | -21.8 | 53.6 | 42 | +11.6 |
| Sat Aug 29 | San José State @ USC | 12-45 | 26-42 | +33.7 | +16 | +17.7 | 57.1 | 68 | -10.9 |
| Sat Aug 29 | North Carolina @ TCU | 19-33 | 15-10 | +14.0 | -5 | +19.0 | 51.4 | 25 | +26.4 |